题 目：Managing Policy Anticipation

主讲人：李嘉晟 助理研究员

时  间：2024年9月23日（周一）16:00-17:30

地  点：学院楼13号楼321

主  办：yl9193永利官网

摘要：This paper examines the impact of anticipated tax increases on household purchasing behavior and social welfare. Using a bunching design, we analyze two consecutive tax increases for small displacement vehicles in China. Our findings reveal that the length of anticipation significantly influences the timing of household purchases. We develop a dynamic discrete choice model incorporating limited memory to explain these results. Theoretical analysis indicates that individuals' responses to anticipated policy shocks are shaped by limited memory and option value effects. We estimate the parameters of our structural model and conduct a series of counterfactual experiments, finding that the optimal anticipation period is two months before the tax increase. This enhances the policy's effect by over 8.85% in terms of sales and stimulates demand for 15.651 thousand more vehicles compared to an unexpected policy roll-out. These findings have important implications for policymakers, suggesting that a better understanding of household responses to anticipated tax increases can inform the design of policies that effectively promote social welfare.

主讲人简介：

李嘉晟，清华大学经济管理学院助理研究员，国家资助博士后研究人员计划获得者，研究领域为公共财政、产业经济学。目前工作论文于期刊International Economic Review返修，担任Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization、China Economic Review、China&World Economy等期刊的匿名审稿人。